Stats We Can Believe In

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Sorry me no bloggy in a couple days. I’ll be sure to post something soon. Be sure to tune in.

Can’t Comment? No Problem!

It’s come to my attention that in order to comment on this blog you must have an account with MLBlogs.com. I understand that a lot of people might want to comment but not want to take the time to make an account. That is why I have made an account over at blogger.com where I will link to this site everytime I make a new post. That way if you want to comment over there you can, and I will be sure to address you personally.Here is the link

I will post this in the “about me” section as well. Please fell free to comment!!!

MLB Network Nonsense

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I was saying yesterday that I have mixed feelings about the MLB Network. This clip is a prime example of that. It starts off with the seemingly noble goal of trying to explain the PECOTA projection system to the casual fan. It is a very good and well produced vignette. Unfortunately it quickly turns into what you’ve come to expect from commentators like Harold Reynolds; a complete rejection of logic and reason in favor of subjective nonsense. I got the video from Mets Tailgate who got it from Beyond the Boxscore, both highly recommended sites. (The picture above is from the guys at and-that-happened , who also wrote a piece on the following clip.)

What We’ve Learned
1) Getting “good character guys” on your team is at least equally important as OBP. 
2) People with good stats aren’t necessarily “baseball players”
3)”Stats are ridiculous!!!” ….Thanks Harold
4) People can hit a “quality” .215 that is somehow “not translated into stats”….o…kay
5) People with access to empirical evidence and proof cannot tell you why someone is good or bad but an old man with a straw hat and stop watch can. This is purely because of his hat and watch. His gray hair might also have something to do with it. 
6) The man with the straw hat is an omnipresent, omniscient baseball god who has seen every player in “bases loaded” “game-on-the-line” situations.
7) If you defend or like stats you must preface it with saying you are playing devil’s advocate.
8) There’s a place for stats in baseball just as long as they’re not used to make any sort of decisions. 
9) Harold Reynolds really likes the straw hat man. He also has a “stogie” which can predict future player performance. 
10) There’s “Too much technology”. Laptops will take over the world unless we become a primalistic society. 
11) Harold Reynolds still thinks that clubs are still making all decisions based on the Straw hat god-man.
12) “A touch and a feel” > “Empirical evidence”
My Take

My head almost exploded when I first watched this. Watching it a second and third time, I really just think it is funny. This is what we’re competing with though. It reminds me of Dana Carvey’s Crabby Old Man character: “I don’t like things now compared to the way they used to be!!!!” My main gripes are the following:
1) The resistance to change is uncanny. What’s especially frustrating is that they don’t even bother to learn about these stats. They have no idea how PECOTA works, and they’re not even interested in finding out. They are willing and happy to be ignorant about it. Since when is this the mark of good journalism?
2) PECOTA does not claim to be able to predict the future, but rather it tries to project it based on evidence. Harold and the gang do this too! Only they used subjective nonsense as their “evidence”. Somehow when they do it, it’s good but people who “like stats” are brainiacs who are trying to ruin the game. Not only that but PECOTA is normally RIGHT!! or at least very close to being right. Notice how they don’t dare address this. 
3) Harold and co. use stats too!!! Only they used “traditional” stats like RBI and W/L for pitchers. What they really hate are stats that are more efficient like VORP and FIP.
What it comes down to is that people like those on this panel do not like being challenged. They are so stubbornly wrong-headed and refuse to admit that they could be wrong about something. Hopefully these people will be grandfathered out and more open-minded people will take their place…. Then we can finally program the computers to destroy all baseball fields and have baseball games played exclusively using computer programs.

Spring Training Game 2-25-09

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Well I meant to post a little recap of today’s spring training game. Unfortunately I can’t find anything. Not even a single box score. If you can find one let me know. The game was not televised and wasn’t even webcasted, which annoyed me, but I was able to follow along on Gameday. Well here’s what I remember:
- The final score, I think, was 6-1 Yanks. Not that the final score is that important for a spring training game. 
-I think i remember Nick Swisher having a good game. I’m pretty sure he had a double and a walk.
-A-rod hit a two run bomb in the 4th. Multiple articles have already been written on it. I’m sure more will be written between tonight and tomorrow saying things like “A-rod gets the monkey of his back!” or “Baseball is a sanctuary for A-rod”. A-rod is a home run machine. That’s what he does. This is not such a revelation to me, nor is it the biggest story of this game. That would be…….
- Brett Gardner hits a leadoff HR to start the game. I know it’s spring training and Gardner is not a HR guy but if you believe in “sending a message” there’s no better way to do it in my opinion. Personally I have no preference as to who starts the year in centerfield. Neither are a great choice and whoever starts the year there isn’t likely to finish the year there. I don’t know why the Yankees don’t consider starting Damon in center, Swisher in right and Nady in left. That takes care of two problems at once. 
Tomorrow’s game is on YES so I’ll be sure to talk a little bit about that tomorrow. Goodnight!

Putting an End to the Joba/bullpen Debate

I have mix feelings on the new MLB network. I see signs of them trying to be forward thinking but in the end the true colors of the commentators are always shown. The shows I’ve seen that have been particularly annoying are the Hotstove show and the 30 teams in 30 days show. Almost all of the analysis is subjective. Many of the arguments presented by the analyst start off with “He’s good because he’s a gamer and works hard” or “I don’t need stats I remember blah blah blah”. It’s the same nonsense that has always prevailed in the coverage of baseball. 

During the episode of “30 Teams in 30 Days” in which the yankees were featured a “debate”, for lack of a better word, broke out about Joba’s position in the rotation and if he would be more valuable in the bullpen. This was less of a debate and more of a plea to Joe Girardi to put Joba in the pen. The hosts of the show are not the only one’s saying this so I thought it deserved to be discussed. 
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You don’t really need stats to understand why Joba is more valuable as a starter. This is how I KNOW that the Yankees decision to start Joba is the right decision:
1) All the idiot sportswriters and commentators seem to think he should be in the pen. This should almost be enough to convince you that he should be a starter. Whatever these morons think, the opposite is normally true. 
2) There’s no doubt that Joba is an extraordinary talent. If he can start, which it’s been proven he can, he should start. If we can agree that Joba is good, which he is, then it makes most sense to make sure he sees an optimal amount of innings. As a starter Joba will pitch more innings than he would as a reliever. He will therefore have the biggest impact for the team as a starter. This notion that he will affect more games as a reliever is absurd. Even if he pitches every game out of the pen there is no guarantee that the game will even be in reach for the Yanks. If he only pitches 5 innings per start that will still translate into more wins for the Yankees, which I think is what we all want. 
You also have to consider that if Joba is in the pen then someone else has to step in and be the 5th starter. This person, most likely Phil Hughes, would be more likely cost the Yankees games. If Hughes gives up 7 runs in the first 3 innings, what difference does it make if Joba strikes out the side in the eighth?
**Disclaimer** I am actually a big fan of Phil Hughes and I think that he will end up being really good for the Yanks. I just think he needs more time to develop which he should be able to do this season. I predict he’ll make at least 12 starts for the Yankees this year as injuries are almost a certainty.  
Reasons given for Joba in the pen:
Besides the “He will affect more games!” argument which I just debunked another reason given to keep Joba in the pen is that he is needed to take over the reigns for Mariano Rivera as closer. This is ridiculous for a few different reasons:
1) As valuable as Rivera has been to the Yankees his value has been hindered by his role as “closer”. All you really need to be able to do to be an effective closer is to get three outs before you give up three runs, a task most pitchers can do. The overrated “save” stat has changed the game for the worst since normally the teams best relief pitcher is made prisoner to the closer role instead of being used where he is most needed (i.e. the 6th inning, up by one  run, runners on second and third, one out.) There are plenty of people who could easily step up into the 9th inning role for the Yanks including Brian Bruney, Jose Veras,and Edwar Ramirez just to name a few. There’s also this young guy named Melancon that people are talking about as a replacement for Mariano, as premature as it may be.
2) Just as easily as someone could step into the closer role the same could be said of the 8th inning. The Yankees have a TON of young talent pitching wise. There seems to be this thought that if Joba is not in the pen, the bullpen will not be good. This is simply not true as the Yankees should have one of the best pens in the majors. 
Another reason given for Joba in the pen is concern for injuries. This is really the only legitimate concern about making Joba a starter. Of course he could get injured  and that would be horrible. However there are ways to make injury less of a possibility. That’s what you work with conditioning coaches for. What’s that you say? His body is not made to be a starter?  Are you calling Joba fat? Truth-be-told he might be a little on the hefty side but he is far from obese. It’s also hard to use that as an excuse when the ace/workhorse of your staff is 300 freakin’ pounds!!! ( ok 290 but who’s counting?) There was also a former yankee hero who took awful care of his body but was still hugely successful. From all accounts there is no evidence that Joba is not taking excellent care of his body and shouldn’t be 100% prepared for the season.
Make him a “Fireman”
It pains me to say that Max Kellerman, host on 1050ESPN Radio in NY, a man whose opinions I respect, has come out in favor of putting Joba in the pen. He says that he should be used as a “fireman” to come in for pressure innings to get key outs. That is all well and good but I have two problems with this.
1) Joba is still more valuable pitching more innings. His abilities as a relief pitcher can easily be approximated by others in the pen.
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2) He would NEVER be used that way anyway. That’s simply not how Major League clubs are run today. Should they be? Yes I think so, but that’s not what would happen. Joba would most likely exclusively pitch the 8th inning rendering “fireman” status meaningless. 
I hope this helped to shed some light on this issue. I hope that I was able to finally put this to bed in your minds. Of course the idiot sportswriters will continue to spew their garbage but WE are smarter than them! Truth-be-told I think the only reason they want him in the pen is because they overvalue the closer position and they want someone to take over for Rivera when he (most likely) retires in two years. 

First Post

I am very excited to have started this blog. I think this is a great feature that Major League Baseball has decided to offer. I am excited to keep this going all season long and hopefully be able to provide some insight that you will not get from the usual talking heads, beat writers, and analysts. 
If you couldn’t tell by the format of this blog, I am a lifelong Yankee fan. For as long as I can remember I have followed the pinstripes with great admiration. To give you a little perspective my first “favorite players” were Jimmy Key and Don Mattingly. Now my Favorite players are Joba Chamberlain and yes, satan himself, Alex Rodriguez. Of course I’m kidding with that A-rod comment. I am actually one of his biggest supporters throughout this nonsense. Perhaps I will get into it more but basically my whole philosophy on the situation is ” Yes he did steroids, who cares, let’s move on”.
The purpose of this blog, as stated in the tag line, is to provide a more analytical and statistical perspective to the New York Yankees. I read too many articles by sports writers that simply infuriate me. If you believe these writers, team “chemistry” and things like Joe Girardi removing the ice cream machine from the club house are somehow newsworthy, and not only that but they actually affect how the team performs on the field.
I am a proponent of SABRmetrics, a term coined by Bill James to describe an assortment of statistics that provide a more efficient understanding of value than most “traditional” stats. This has been covered ad nauseum by a number of different bloggers but for a basic understanding I’ll list some stats that provide a good understanding of a players value and some that provide little or no understanding of a players value. This is very basic and I can go into it more if there is any interest.

Statistics of Value:

1. ERA (earned run average)

2. ERA+ (adjusted for historical/park factors)

3. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)

4. OBP ( On Base Percentage)

5. SLG (Slugging Percentage)

6. OPS (On Base + Slugging)

7. OPS+ (adjusted for historical/ park factors)

8. VORP ( Value over replacement player)

9. WAR ( Wins above replacement)

Statistics of little or no value:

1.Batting Average ( No so bad if put in context with OBP and Slugging, but still overrated)

2.RBI

3. W/L record for a pitcher

I will combine this analysis with some fun banter, as well as setting the sports writers straight on a number of different issues. First up to bat: I will put an end to this “Should Joba be in the bullpen?” issue. **Spoiler Alert** He shouldn’t!!!
I hope you all enjoy what I have to offer here. Thanks for reading!

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